AdminRob Renaud (Programmer/Parsing Monkey/Fake Statistician, Councilroom.com: Dominion Statistics)

My feedback

  1. 4 votes
    Vote
    Sign in
    Check!
    (thinking…)
    Reset
    or sign in with
    • facebook
    • google
      Password icon
      I agree to the terms of service
      Signed in as (Sign out)
      You have left! (?) (thinking…)
      1 comment  ·  General  ·  Admin →

      As far as I can tell, there is no way to actually do this. There is no 'true player identifier' left in the logs. The name is all we've got.

      Of course, it's possible to implement merged player pages or allow users to enter in new/old name pairs and use that to do the merge. But that's a lot of effort, compared to you just sticking with your user name ;P.

    • 1 vote
      Vote
      Sign in
      Check!
      (thinking…)
      Reset
      or sign in with
      • facebook
      • google
        Password icon
        I agree to the terms of service
        Signed in as (Sign out)
        You have left! (?) (thinking…)
        2 comments  ·  General  ·  Admin →

        Hi Jonathan. It's currently super simple, as you say. Counts are easy to interpret and easy to update when new data comes in.

        I am not actually sure how ANOVA works.

        What kind of model would you posit?

        Is it possible to online anova, where the cost of updating the results is low for data sets that are small?

      • 10 votes
        Vote
        Sign in
        Check!
        (thinking…)
        Reset
        or sign in with
        • facebook
        • google
          Password icon
          I agree to the terms of service
          Signed in as (Sign out)
          You have left! (?) (thinking…)
          2 comments  ·  General  ·  Admin →

          My problem with the popular buys page is that there is already too much stuff on the page. I think under/overbuying are good first order things to consider if you do poorly with a card. And you can always eye ball the total effect by doing a weighted sum of the with and without. Further you can sort by win rate given avail, which will be super correlated the measure you want already.

        • 17 votes
          Vote
          Sign in
          Check!
          (thinking…)
          Reset
          or sign in with
          • facebook
          • google
            Password icon
            I agree to the terms of service
            Signed in as (Sign out)
            You have left! (?) (thinking…)
            5 comments  ·  General  ·  Admin →

            The limitation of not knowing what is someone's hand is due to the data just not being present in the isotropic log.

            I could certainly organize the information better. As of now, it's still lacking the actual score on a turn, which is the easiest thing to improve.

          • 14 votes
            Vote
            Sign in
            Check!
            (thinking…)
            Reset
            or sign in with
            • facebook
            • google
              Password icon
              I agree to the terms of service
              Signed in as (Sign out)
              You have left! (?) (thinking…)
              3 comments  ·  General  ·  Admin →

              Yeah, that's mostly what it means.

              Also if you are in a 3p game, and neither you nor your opponent win, you'll both get a "tie."

              It's there already on the right side, below the graph.

              Understanding the graph

              Win rates

              Win rate is a generalization of winning probability for multiplayer games.

              A win in a 2 player game is worth 2 points, a 3 player game is worth 3, and so on. Someone who plays only 2 player games and wins every time will have a winrate of 2; a 2-player gamer who loses every game has a winrate of 0; a 2-player gamer who wins exactly as often as expected (half wins, half losses) has a winrate of 1.

              The win rate of an event is the average number of points for that event. So an event that is uncorrelated with winning will have a win rate of 1.0, and events correlated with winning have a win rate of > 1.0, and losing with < 1.0.

            • 30 votes
              Vote
              Sign in
              Check!
              (thinking…)
              Reset
              or sign in with
              • facebook
              • google
                Password icon
                I agree to the terms of service
                Signed in as (Sign out)
                You have left! (?) (thinking…)
                3 comments  ·  General  ·  Admin →

                Solo games are filtered out of the database entirely.

              • 2 votes
                Vote
                Sign in
                Check!
                (thinking…)
                Reset
                or sign in with
                • facebook
                • google
                  Password icon
                  I agree to the terms of service
                  Signed in as (Sign out)
                  You have left! (?) (thinking…)
                  2 comments  ·  General  ·  Admin →

                  Nate/guided/ghorsche did a bit of this already.

                  http://boardgamegeek.com/thread/597851/opening-card-strength

                  Of course, this doesn't preclude me from trying to do it better/always up to take/easier to navigate/etc.

                • 15 votes
                  Vote
                  Sign in
                  Check!
                  (thinking…)
                  Reset
                  or sign in with
                  • facebook
                  • google
                    Password icon
                    I agree to the terms of service
                    Signed in as (Sign out)
                    You have left! (?) (thinking…)
                    4 comments  ·  General  ·  Admin →

                    There are a lot of possibilities here, it's just that if I am going to implement something, I want the interface to be nice and usable. I haven't put a lot of thought into the design.

                    The set of possibly interesting things is very large.

                    Perhaps encoding the notion of turn intervals into the interface is enough and ranked order (top 5, bottom 5), but it's not clear to me.

                    If I dedicate some UI to them, then is someone going to want something kind of similar and related, but that doesn't quite fit? Is there some nice unifying concept that I am missing?

                    To do the card selection, the graph is executing arbitrary javascript in the context of an environment that has all of the data available and some analysis functions available. So if you play around with the Chrome developer console or firebug, you can do matches against the data there.

                    http://councilroom.com/win_rate_diff_accum.html?cards=MeanVarStat(all_card_data.card_stats[Singular].win_any_accum).Mean()%20%3E%201.04

                    On the other hand, it's hard to come up with a simple language to describe what you want

                  • 12 votes
                    Vote
                    Sign in
                    Check!
                    (thinking…)
                    Reset
                    or sign in with
                    • facebook
                    • google
                      Password icon
                      I agree to the terms of service
                      Signed in as (Sign out)
                      You have left! (?) (thinking…)
                      2 comments  ·  General  ·  Admin →

                      I am not a fan of Microsoft, but I am almost positive that trueskill is going to do a better job than Elo, and Doug already implements it on isotropic.

                    • 3 votes
                      Vote
                      Sign in
                      Check!
                      (thinking…)
                      Reset
                      or sign in with
                      • facebook
                      • google
                        Password icon
                        I agree to the terms of service
                        Signed in as (Sign out)
                        You have left! (?) (thinking…)
                        1 comment  ·  General  ·  Admin →

                        This is related to two existing ideas:

                        https://councilroom.uservoice.com/forums/99487-general/suggestions/1442565-predict-winning-probability-per-turn?ref=title

                        Even better than just score, if we had a good predictor of actual chance to win, that would be produce even better excitement index.

                        https://councilroom.uservoice.com/forums/99487-general/suggestions/1434255-add-visualizations-for-individual-games?ref=title

                        this graph would be a nice visualization

                      • 3 votes
                        Vote
                        Sign in
                        Check!
                        (thinking…)
                        Reset
                        or sign in with
                        • facebook
                        • google
                          Password icon
                          I agree to the terms of service
                          Signed in as (Sign out)
                          You have left! (?) (thinking…)
                          2 comments  ·  General  ·  Admin →

                          I'll do total record, hopefully tonight. The trueskill stuff will come eventually, but that's a lot more work.

                        • 3 votes
                          Vote
                          Sign in
                          Check!
                          (thinking…)
                          Reset
                          or sign in with
                          • facebook
                          • google
                            Password icon
                            I agree to the terms of service
                            Signed in as (Sign out)
                            You have left! (?) (thinking…)
                            2 comments  ·  General  ·  Admin →

                            Is this a duplicate of "allow filters on game win pages?"

                            http://councilroom.uservoice.com/forums/99487-general/suggestions/1434267-allow-custom-filtering-on-card-win-graph-pages?ref=title

                            Do you want to be able to see how well a single card performs when another card (or pair of cards) is in the set?

                          • 24 votes
                            Vote
                            Sign in
                            Check!
                            (thinking…)
                            Reset
                            or sign in with
                            • facebook
                            • google
                              Password icon
                              I agree to the terms of service
                              Signed in as (Sign out)
                              You have left! (?) (thinking…)
                              1 comment  ·  General  ·  Admin →
                            • 25 votes
                              Vote
                              Sign in
                              Check!
                              (thinking…)
                              Reset
                              or sign in with
                              • facebook
                              • google
                                Password icon
                                I agree to the terms of service
                                Signed in as (Sign out)
                                You have left! (?) (thinking…)
                                0 comments  ·  General  ·  Admin →
                              • 14 votes
                                Vote
                                Sign in
                                Check!
                                (thinking…)
                                Reset
                                or sign in with
                                • facebook
                                • google
                                  Password icon
                                  I agree to the terms of service
                                  Signed in as (Sign out)
                                  You have left! (?) (thinking…)
                                  1 comment  ·  General  ·  Admin →
                                • 23 votes
                                  Vote
                                  Sign in
                                  Check!
                                  (thinking…)
                                  Reset
                                  or sign in with
                                  • facebook
                                  • google
                                    Password icon
                                    I agree to the terms of service
                                    Signed in as (Sign out)
                                    You have left! (?) (thinking…)
                                    2 comments  ·  General  ·  Admin →

                                  Feedback and Knowledge Base